How launches
go wrong.
Three patterns that show up again and again on new token launches, how each one looks on-chain, and the limits of what the evidence can say.
Many wallets,
one block.
A bundle is a set of buys placed together, usually in the very block the pool opens. When the buying wallets were all funded moments earlier from one source and have no other history, they are likely controlled together.
A large bundled share means a small group can sell a large part of the supply at once.
- Supply bought in the launch block(s)
- Whether the buyers share a funder
- How much of the bundled supply is still held
- Buyers in the first 10 and 60 seconds
Busy launches attract fast, unrelated buyers. Same-block timing alone is weak evidence; shared funding makes it stronger, but exchanges and bridges fund strangers too.
The creator
exits.
The most common bad ending on a launchpad is not a hidden contract trick. It is the creator selling a large holding into early demand, after which the price does not recover.
Cyclops records this as “Creator sold out” when the price falls 80% or more while the creator wallet sells, and “Collapsed” when the price falls 90% or more from its peak.
- What the creator wallet holds and has sold
- Tokens the creator moved to other wallets off-market
- The creator’s earlier launches and how they ended
- Pool liquidity and whether it is locked
A creator selling is an observation, not proof of intent. Some creators sell to fund work; some launches fail for ordinary reasons. Outcome labels describe what happened, not why.
Linked wallets
sell first.
Supply can leave the creator’s wallet before launch or in the first minutes: sent to fresh wallets, or bought by wallets the creator funded. Those wallets then sell to later buyers while the creator wallet itself looks quiet.
Tracing funding and transfers back to the creator is how these wallets are found.
- Wallets funded by, or sent tokens by, the creator
- Clusters linked by shared funders, transfers and same-transaction buys
- How much those wallets hold and have taken out
- Early buyers who repeat across the creator’s launches
Links are evidence of a relationship, not of who controls a wallet. A shared funder that is an exchange, bridge or router is ignored, because those connect unrelated customers.
Case
studies.
Real launches from the index that ended badly, each written strictly as the record shows it: what traded, how far the price fell, what the creator wallet sold.